The Next Hot HerbArticle

With markets for once “hot herbs” like ginseng, St. John’s wort, and echinacea frequently sliding into oversupply—and prices and profits declining—growers are naturally interested in what new herbs to cultivate next.

St. John’s Wort: A Case Study

I’m often asked what I think the next “hot herb” will be. St. John’s wort was a prime example some years back, after it was touted on a popular TV news program as a possible substitute for the anti-depressant drug Prozac. It was remarkable how one television segment caused a sharp price spike and instant shortages. Hundreds of growers jumped in, planting thousands of hectares after the market explosion. For a while, you couldn’t even find St. John’s wort seeds because so many people wanted to cash in.

So, what will be the next hot herb? A crystal ball is little help.

Predicting Herbs, Like Picking Stocks

Predicting the next hot herb is like picking stocks, with all the associated risks. In theory, there are over 100,000 different herbs worldwide—equal to the number of higher plants known to exist. Virtually every plant has some medicinal or otherwise useful property.

Surprisingly, even noxious plants such as poison ivy and quackgrass have a market. Poison ivy is used to make homeopathic tinctures, and quackgrass is used as a tonic and for bladder, liver, gallbladder, and spleen issues.

Of these 100,000 species, only a few thousand are actually in commerce. For most, a modest demand is met by existing suppliers (from wild or cultivated sources) with prices and volumes holding fairly steady. Somewhere among these herbs lurks the next St. John’s wort—that much the crystal ball will reveal.

Herbal Market Fundamentals

In the stock market, analysts talk about “fundamentals”—objective measures like price-to-earnings ratios that suggest where prices could go. Of course, reality doesn’t always follow logic, and markets can plummet despite the fundamentals. Still, the fundamentals are useful to help navigate market unpredictability.

We can apply the same approach to herbs. By looking at the “fundamentals” of medicinal or functional herbs, we can assess their market potential.

Herbs for an Aging Demographic

For example, as populations age, herbs that help slow signs of aging should see steady demand. Herbs that keep the mind alert, give the body energy, or ward off illnesses may also grow in popularity. Take black cohosh, which has been recognized as beneficial for women going through menopause. Demand has steadily increased, and more growers are cultivating it in woodlands and under artificial shade.

In truth, there are hundreds of herbs that fit the “fundamentals” for an aging demographic, and any one of them could become the next “hot herb.” Gotu kola, for instance, has a substantial body of clinical support for connective tissue health, aging joints and ligaments, and skin care. So far, it hasn’t experienced a boom, but it has potential—sometimes all it needs is a spark of public attention.

Still, growers looking to discover the next “hot herb” should not rely on fundamentals alone. A herb may take years to catch on, or it might never catch on at all.

Balancing Speculation and ‘Bread-and-Butter’ Crops

Obviously, no grower can plant on speculation alone. You need dependable, “bread-and-butter” herbs to keep the bills paid. But it often pays to experiment with a few promising prospects, learning about their cultivation and marketing. If a herb does take off, those who already know how to grow and sell it can scale up quickly. Historically, the earliest to jump into markets for herbs like ginseng, echinacea, and St. John’s wort made significant profits while prices were high and competition low.

Researching Prospects

Where to find new prospects? A good place to start is the research literature. Online databases like Medline are available for free, and there’s an ever-growing supply of reputable books and monographs. Your herb seed and plug supplier can also offer suggestions for up-and-coming herbs worth trying.

In the end, being prepared and staying informed are the best ways to identify—and possibly profit from—the next hot herb.

This article was revised in December 2024 to maintain accuracy and reflect current industry trends.

Originally published in the Saskatchewan Herb and Spice Association Newsletter, May 2000.